The £39 Billion Mirage: Affordable Homes Another Broken Promise?

Following on from my recent post about the Perfect Red Storm, I want to dig into one of the government’s flagship promises: the much-trumpeted £39 billion commitment to “affordable housing.”

On the surface, it sounds noble—who wouldn’t want more homes for those struggling to get onto the ladder? But let’s strip back the headline. Time and again, “affordable” in government language rarely means affordable in reality. It often translates into properties priced at 80% of market value—a figure that, in many parts of the country, still leaves first-time buyers completely locked out.

Here’s the problem: throwing money at housing without fixing the fundamentals is like painting over damp walls. Unless there’s reform to planning, land use, and taxation, supply will continue to be strangled. Developers will build slowly, government will count units that barely move the needle, and ordinary people will be told that broken promises are progress.

And the price tag? £39 billion is not investment in wealth creation—it is borrowing and taxation repackaged. With debt already soaring, this is yet another liability placed on the shoulders of working people who are already struggling to keep up with tax, inflation, and interest rates.

As someone who has worked in the property sector through multiple cycles, I’ve seen this play before. Bold announcements, glossy press releases, and then… stagnation, frustration, and a housing market that becomes even more inaccessible.

If this £39 billion really was about making homes genuinely affordable, it would come hand in hand with deep structural reform. But without it, I fear it is yet another chapter in the cycle of promises made, promises broken—and another gust of wind feeding the storm I wrote about last week.

Over the coming days, I’ll continue breaking down the housing and taxation reforms in this Autumn Budget. If history is anything to go by, we are not heading toward stability—but deeper into turbulence.